Long Chu receives financial support from various organizations, but none of it is related to his work on COVID-19. Similarly, Quentin Grafton, who also receives funding from multiple organizations including the Australian Research Council, has not accepted external funding for his COVID-19 research. Tom Kompas is funded by the Australian Research Council and other groups, yet he, too, hasn’t received any direct external funding for his studies on COVID-19 or Long COVID. Valentina Costantino doesn’t work for, consult, or own shares in any company that would benefit from this article, and has no relevant affiliations beyond her academic position.
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), 10 to 20 percent of people experience long COVID after recovering from the initial infection. This condition can include symptoms like fatigue, shortness of breath, and cognitive challenges, known as “brain fog.” More than 200 symptoms have been associated with long COVID, which can significantly impair daily life. Our research, published today, assesses the economic impact of long COVID in Australia and finds it cost the economy nearly 10 billion Australian dollars in 2022.
WHO defines long COVID as persistent or new symptoms appearing three months after the initial infection, lasting for at least two months with no other explanation. The ongoing symptoms might be due to how SARS-CoV-2, the virus causing COVID-19, affects various body parts (like the heart, blood vessels, and lungs). Long COVID is thought to involve the virus remaining in the body long after the initial infection, leading to immune system problems, and potentially affecting brain functions, particularly those involved in planning and executing tasks. This could make work and daily activities challenging for those with long COVID.
Using Australian data, we estimated the number of infections in 2022, modeled long COVID and recovery rates across ages, and assessed the economic burden. This involved estimating losses in labor supply nationwide and the subsequent reduction in real GDP. Economic losses stem from affected individuals being unable to work or working at reduced capacity. At the height of infections in September 2022, around 1,374,805 Australians, or 5.4 percent of the population, were living with long COVID after a single infection. About 3.4 percent would still have long COVID after 12 months, even accounting for recoveries. This led to over 100 million lost work hours in 2022, costing roughly 9.6 billion dollars, or 0.5 percent of that year’s GDP. The most affected were adults aged 30 to 49, specifically those aged 30-39 who accounted for 27.5 million lost work hours, or 26.9 percent of all lost labor, followed by the 40-49 age group with 24.5 million hours lost, or 23.9 percent of the total. Younger age groups might be more affected due to higher infection rates possibly linked to their mobility and interactions.
We did not include impacts on healthy employees who had to care for others with COVID or long COVID. Our focus was on a single COVID infection, not reinfections, which would increase the likelihood of long COVID, thus suggesting our impact estimate is conservative. Long COVID can affect people of any age and occurs independently of the initial COVID infection’s severity. Ongoing widespread infections mean even if a small percentage develop long COVID, this equates to a substantial number of people. For perspective, 2 percent of Australians have coronary heart disease, the leading cause of illness and death in the country and globally. Even if 3.4 percent of people have persistent long COVID, this results in significant public health and economic challenges. Unlike coronary heart disease, which primarily affects older adults, our study indicates the economic impact of long COVID is greatest among working-age individuals.
Countries such as the United States and the United Kingdom face similar economic losses due to the increasing number of long COVID cases, with some estimates suggesting it may cost around 1 trillion U.S. dollars per year, or about 1 percent of the global economy. The substantial evidence of long COVID’s impact on health is prompting experts to advocate for it to be considered in policy-making.
In Australia, the immediate consequences of acute COVID, such as hospitalization and mortality, currently influence policies on antiviral and vaccine eligibility. Healthy individuals under 70 do not qualify for subsidized antivirals, while vaccines for children and adult booster rates remain limited. However, strong evidence suggests vaccines reduce the likelihood of long COVID, with some evidence also pointing to antivirals lowering the risk. Therefore, long COVID should be included in policy considerations regarding antivirals and vaccines in Australia. Additional measures to lower infection risk, like enhancing indoor air safety and using masks in crowded areas, particularly in healthcare and eldercare settings during COVID outbreaks, can also help reduce the risk of long COVID.