During the COVID-19 years, Philadelphia saw a surge in shootings and homicides, heavily impacting young Black and Latino men in economically challenged neighborhoods with drug markets. In 2020, Philadelphia recorded 499 homicides, which was almost 150 more than the previous year. The situation worsened in 2021 with 562 homicides but saw a slight decrease in 2022. Fortunately, recent data indicates a significant decline in these crimes over the past two years. By late September 2024, the number of homicides had fallen by 40% compared to the same period in 2023, and shooting victim numbers also decreased from 1,236 in the first eight months of 2023 to 758 in 2024.
As criminal justice professors residing in Greater Philadelphia, it’s clear that multiple factors at both the local and national levels contribute to the reduction in gun violence. A shortage of police due to pandemic-era resignations, retirements, and injuries severely impacted cities like Philadelphia. Moreover, the number of traffic and pedestrian stops conducted by the Philadelphia Police Department significantly decreased, influenced by both COVID-19 social distancing requirements and police hesitancy after the protests following George Floyd’s murder. The number of documented stops dropped by 83% from 2019 to 2020. Additionally, the police department faced challenges with officers misusing the Pennsylvania Heart and Lung Act, which provides full salaries to police and firefighters injured on the job.
By September 2021, 14% of Philadelphia’s patrol officers were on “no duty” disability leave, as revealed by investigations from The Philadelphia Inquirer and the city controller. Although current data is unavailable, there was a 31% reduction in injury claims by December 2022, ten months post-Inquirer investigation. Recently, the department increased recruitment efforts, relaxed physical requirements, and removed certain residency constraints to boost workforce numbers, but staffing is still about 20% below 2019 levels, placing pressure on the current staff. The COVID-19 pandemic considerably disrupted the entire criminal justice system in Philadelphia, affecting court operations, case backlogs, supervision of probationers and parolees, and the size of the jail population. Community and hospital-based violence intervention programs also faced disruptions. Post-pandemic initiatives such as resumed court operations, improved violence intervention, police hiring efforts, and fewer disability claims may partly explain the recent reduction in shootings.
Reducing gun violence was a major issue in Philadelphia’s 2023 mayoral election. Mayor Cherelle Parker, elected on a law enforcement platform, declared a public safety emergency on her first day and appointed Kevin Bethel as police commissioner. Bethel, previously second-in-command under former Commissioner Charles Ramsey, released a 100-day plan focusing on crime reduction in high-crime areas, eliminating open-air drug markets in Kensington, and strengthening federal partnerships to tackle violent crime. Philadelphia has incorporated new policing strategies and technologies. Before Parker and Bethel’s leadership, former Commissioner Danielle Outlaw established a unit to investigate nonfatal shootings.
In 2021, only 17% of nonfatal shootings resulted in arrests, which can lead to retaliatory violence, diminished trust in the legal system, and communities self-policing. Though it’s unclear how effective the new unit has been in Philadelphia, similar initiatives in places like Boston and Denver have reduced gun violence. Additionally, the city started deploying mobile surge teams to high-crime areas on weekends to deter criminal activity. Temple University credits crime reductions in its patrol areas to new safety measures such as improved officer equipment, enhanced security cameras, and advanced technologies like license plate readers to identify stolen vehicles or those involved in crimes. Local efforts likely contributed to Philadelphia’s decline in violent crime; these improvements are part of a national crime trend, as cities across the U.S. see similar declines. Economist and public safety expert John Roman links the rise and fall of violence to pandemic-related losses in government staffing and functionality, returning to pre-pandemic levels by late 2023.
Roman noted that 1.3 million government jobs were lost nationally at the pandemic’s start, with 75% at the local level. These employees often connect marginalized communities, deeply affected by gun violence, to vital services like trauma counseling, victim advocacy, and legal aid. In Philadelphia, around 3,000 local government jobs were lost from 2019 to 2022. The return of social services and increased community-based interventions post-pandemic might have helped stabilize neighborhoods. Crime trends typically fluctuate; this recent drop aligns with a national reduction in violent crime and might be influenced by normalization after extreme spikes. Researchers, like Roman, also suggest that the 2020-2022 homicide peak may have eliminated some of the most violent offenders in neighborhoods, based on the concept that those most at risk of violence are often offenders themselves.